Global M2 predicts Bitcoin’s next move: bear before the bull, or just hopium?

The 108-day offset could predict Bitcoin's next move

We are witnessing a massive injection of global liquidity, and it’s already happened. That’s not a prediction. It’s a fact. The global M2 money supply has seen a steep and sustained increase, and if history repeats (or even rhymes), Bitcoin might be on the verge of something big. In fact, we’ve seen this pattern before. Back in 2021, a similar M2 surge preceded Bitcoin’s meteoric rise from $60,000 to over $100,000. The current M2 run-up? It’s just as large, maybe larger, and it doesn’t even look finished.

Why M2 matters for Bitcoin

M2 represents the broad supply of money in the global economy: cash, deposits, and easily convertible near money. When central banks around the world print and inject liquidity, M2 rises. Historically, risk assets like stocks, and Bitcoin, respond positively to this increased capital sloshing around. But Bitcoin isn’t just another stock. It’s a global asset, untethered to any single country. That’s why we track global M2, not just the U.S. M2, and that’s why the correlation is so compelling.

When we shift the global M2 line forward by 108 days, something remarkable happens: it aligns closely with Bitcoin’s price movements, showing a correlation as high as 80% across multiple timeframes.

The 108-day offset theory

Here’s the basic idea: when global M2 rises, that liquidity doesn’t immediately show up in Bitcoin’s price. It takes time, roughly 108 days, for the newly created capital to trickle through the global economy and find its way into risk assets. We’re not talking about a perfect 1:1 correlation, but the movement is predictive.

• Pump in M2 → Pump in BTC (108 days later).

• Dip in M2 → BTC weakness.

• Sideways M2 → Bleeding and chop.

And guess what? Right now, the M2 line is ticking upward again after a brief dip. The liquidity is coming. So why isn’t Bitcoin pumping yet? If you’re wondering why Bitcoin hasn’t already taken off, you’re not alone. The answer lies in timing. We’re still in the lag window. Based on current offsets, the real impact of this M2 surge may not be felt by Bitcoin until around May 1st. Until then, the price could remain range-bound or even face more downside. That’s the painful part. The reward may be coming, but the wait isn’t easy. If the correlation holds, we could see Bitcoin rallying hard in late April into May, with altcoinspotentially outperforming on a percentage basis.

What’s the play?

• Wait and accumulate during the chop and bleed.

• Prepare for liftoff around early May, assuming the correlation holds.

• Monitor the offset, as it might change over time.

• Focus on the macro, not the noise.

Final thoughts

This isn’t about certainties. It’s about probabilities.

Yes, Bitcoin could decouple. Yes, it might ignore this liquidity wave. But with a correlation this high and global money printing at full blast, we find it very unlikely Bitcoin avoids the positive pressure for long. We’ve been shaken. Many will panic. But those who understand the macro, who hold firm through the fear, could be positioned for outsized gains when the tide turns.

So hang in there. Buckle up.

The M2 surge is real. The clock is ticking.

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