Rethinking Bitcoin's halving cycle: is it really different this time?
Why is Bitcoin performing poorly this cycle?
Today, we want to address a question: Why is Bitcoin performing so poorly right now? From the sharp drop after its all-time high to its current weak, range-bound price action, what’s going on? Because here’s the thing: the Bitcoin network itself is operating beautifully. Fees are low. Transactions are flowing. Blocks are being mined. The consensus rules are being enforced without censorship. From a technical perspective, everything is running like a dream. And yet, Bitcoin’s fiat price, especially when measured against the US dollar, is lagging. Badly.
The Four-Year Cycle: this time is different?
Let’s start with Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle, driven by the halving events. The latest halving occurred in April 2024, and if history were repeating itself, we should be well into another powerful bull phase by now.
Here’s a breakdown:
Following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin was, by this point in the cycle, on track for a price of $1.1 million (when scaled). After the 2016 halving, the equivalent was $235,000 per BTC, and post-2020 halving, it was $418,000. And 2024? We’re nowhere close. In fact, Bitcoin is significantly underperforming all previous cycles. The four-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is also at historic lows, hovering around 133%, a sharp decline compared to earlier cycles. Even if one accounts for diminishing returns over time, the current performance is undeniably underwhelming.
Explanation 1: macro is a mess
One possible reason? Macro headwinds.
Uncertainty is dominating global markets, from Trump’s trade and tariff threats, to geopolitical realignments, to attempts to cut US federal spending. The “Doge” cost-cutting strategy, could lead to shrinking government expenditure, which in turn might hit US GDP. If GDP contracts for two consecutive quarters, it’s a recession, and that weighs heavily on risk assets like Bitcoin and technology stocks.
And despite its fundamentals, Bitcoin still behaves like a risk-on asset in the eyes of many investors, rallying during booms, slumping during panics.
This brings us to Trump’s “America First” investment policy, which dropped on Feb 21, 2025, and took a hardline stance against Chinese investment in US assets. That announcement triggered a sell-off in the NASDAQ, and Bitcoin followed.
So, on the macro scale, we’ve got tightening capital, policy uncertainty, and global repositioning. All of that adds downward pressure.
Explanation 2: the whale-retail transfer
Despite the price action, there’s been massive buying happening, just not from retail investors. Instead, we’re seeing institutions, ETFs, corporations (like Strategy), and even nation-states accumulating Bitcoin. It is estimated that Funds, ETFs and Businesses bought nearly 900,000 BTC in 2024, with indidivuals selling around 525,000 BTC. Governments also sold another 62,000 BTC.
So yes, the "paper hands" are out. Retail is cashing in, whilst long-term holders and institutions are stepping in to buy at discount prices. It’s a shift in ownership, plain and simple. But it makes the price action look weak.
Explanation 3: Bitcoin doesn’t owe you anything
Sometimes, there’s just… no good explanation. Bitcoin doesn’t owe us a bull market just because it’s “that time in the cycle.” The block subsidy has dropped from 50 BTC per block in 2009 to just 3.125 BTC per block now. Maybe the halving isn’t the powerful catalyst it once was. Yes, it still serves as a kind of ritual or prophecy, but markets evolve. And the more people expect a certain pattern, the more likely it is to stop working. That’s how trading systems decay: when everyone knows the system, the edge disappears. so, whats the takeaway from all this?
👉 Cheap sats are a blessing
You can’t time Bitcoin. Nobody can. That’s why DCA (dollar-cost averaging) is your friend. Buy a fixed dollar amount every day, week or month, regardless of price. Set it. Forget it. Go live your life. Checking the Bitcoin price 10 times a day is like checking your house’s price estimate hourly. It’s irrational, and more often than not, just a dopamine hit. Instead, you should focus on Bitcoin’s fundementals.
Its decentralised.
There is no counterparty risk.
There is no fiat or crypto like dilution.
There is no second best.
Bitcoin will move when it’s good and ready. And when it does, we’ll all be posting that classic meme: “Come on... do something”, then boom 💥, a green candle out of nowhere, soaring far higher than anyone expected. Until then, we’re accumulating daily, and we hope you are too. Stack sats and chill…
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